A mental model I’ve found helpful in handling high-stakes and uncertain customer situations is scenario planning. A few years ago, one of the best sales leaders I’ve worked for explained this concept as I started leading more complex multi-year sales cycles. Since then, applying it has provided clarity and elevated my sales acumen. I also consider the concept an excellent antidote to inaction.
In The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz defines scenarios as a tool for helping us take a long view in a world of great uncertainty. Further, scenarios are not about predicting the future; instead, they are about perceiving futures in the present.
My main takeaway from the book is scenarios often (but not always) seem to fall into three groups: 1/more of the same, but better; 2/worse (decay and depression); and 3/different but better (fundamental change). Although not all scenarios fit nicely into these three groups, understanding what decisions lead to each outcome is critical.
I’ve found it’s best to work backward from each scenario, not just your ideal scenario. This approach helps inform which decisions to avoid and which to make with conviction. Also, working backward from each scenario from the point of view of your customer or prospect builds empathy. Finally, it helps you be more consultative in guiding your customer to your ideal outcome.
A practical and easy way of applying scenario planning is using it to set agendas for high-stakes sales calls.
Here’s an example of how I used it when my team and I presented a proposal to a customer about a transformative project.
After welcoming everyone and doing a round of introductions, I kicked off the meeting by letting everyone know three possible outcomes could happen at the end of our time together.
First, they listen to what we have to say and decide to adopt one or two recommendations, which may improve their business, but nothing transformative. (Scenario 1)
Second, they decide not to accept any recommendations and continue operating business as usual. (Scenario 2)
Third, they like our proposal and commit to adopting all the transformative changes we are recommending (Scenario 3).
After sharing these possible outcomes, I noticed my nerves calm down. I even observed everyone, including my team members, relax because I presented everyone with options which gave them a sense of control. As a result, they all had skin in the game.
Furthermore, by using scenario planning to demystify the uncertainty of the meeting outcomes, everyone could now focus on the content and arrive at an objective conclusion.
When the meeting ended, the decision-maker leaned towards Scenario 3. In contrast, one or two of the decision-maker’s lieutenants leaned toward Scenario 1.
Fortunately, my team did a fantastic job leading the discussion that Scenario 2 did not appear to be a part of the customer’s future.
We closed the opportunity with the decision-maker for the transformative project a few weeks later.
Godspeed selling!